By Michael Simmons writing for The Spectator
Michael Simmons writing for the spectator compares the predictions made about Covid with what actually happened. The data shows that the predictions were wrong.
Modelling matters. It has consequences. If the Sage summer reopening scenarios had been believed (as they were by Keir Starmer) lockdown could have been extended – with all the social and economic damage that would entail. If the Sage autumn scenarios had been believed, schools might have remained shut. If just one December cabinet meeting had gone differently there would have been sweeping restrictions that the real world data now tells us would have been completely unnecessary.